Analysis of whether the natural rubber market will continue to be strong

- Feb 26, 2019-

Macro factors:

Overseas media said that this month's high-level Sino-US economic and trade consultations were held in Washington. Reuters quoted sources familiar with the negotiations as saying that the two sides have developed a commitment outline on the most difficult issues in trade disputes and further implemented the important consensus reached by the two heads of state in Argentina. The bilateral economic and trade relations have made significant progress.


Production:


In Southeast Asia, Vietnam entered the cut-off period in mid-January. Thailand and the northern part of Thailand have been completely shut down. Indonesia, Malaysia, and southern Thailand have begun to transition to a reduced production period. In the first quarter, the amount of rubber produced in Southeast Asia has entered a low season. In the domestic production areas, Yunnan and Hainan have not started tapping. The global production of natural rubber is generally reduced, at a low level during the year, and the supply side is reduced, and the natural rubber will be in the consumption season.


Inventory:


The rubber inventory data of Qingdao Free Trade Zone has been suspended since mid-October 2018, and the level of RMB mixed rubber stocks outside the bonded zone is at a high level. In terms of futures inventories, natural rubber stocks increased by 855 tons. Overall, natural rubber stocks remain high.


Downstream demand:


From a fundamental point of view, the Southeast Asian region has stopped cutting, and the output of natural rubber has gradually decreased. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream tire factory gradually started to work. After the tire enterprises consumed the pre-holiday inventory, they gradually increased their purchases, and the market trading atmosphere gradually recovered. Before the Spring Festival, the National Development and Reform Commission and other 10 departments jointly issued the “Implementation Plan to Further Optimize Supply and Promote Stable Growth of Consumption and Promote the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market (2019)”. The market generally believes that this is a new version of China’s automobile to the countryside policy in 2009. Stimulating policies, tire demand will be upgraded, and expected positives give market confidence.


Related Products:


On February 23, the butadiene commodity index was 33.77, which was the same as yesterday. It was 66.23% lower than the highest point in the cycle (2011-09-13), which was 81.07% higher than the lowest point of 18.65 on February 5, 2015. . (Note: The period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).