Confused in the hope of gestation

- Jul 25, 2019-

Judging from the recent trend of styrene-butadiene rubber, Sinopec and PetroChina's major sales companies have obvious signs of stable prices. In the course of operation, traders have no absolute ability to recover after low sales, so the current prices are firm.


From the market outlook, the cost side: the current Sinopec East China butadiene price of 9,000 yuan / ton, Sinopec North China Qilu styrene price of 8,650 yuan / ton, Longzhong measured styrene butadiene dry rubber 1502 theoretical production cost of 1,1412.5 yuan / ton, styrene-butadiene rubber production The processing profit of the enterprise has already been in a state of obvious loss. The raw materials of the privately-produced enterprises of butadiene-butadiene are mostly in the form of long-term mining or long-term, and the losses are even worse. The raw material cost supports the downward space of styrene-butadiene.


Supply surface: The current operating rate of styrene-butadiene rubber production enterprises is about 5.7%. Private Weitai and Shenhua only maintain low-load operation to maintain old customer orders; Fushun Petrochemical's styrene-butadiene plant has four-line low-load operation; Yangzi Petrochemical's two-line down-conversion operation; Lanzhou Petrochemical's two-line down-consumption operation; July 12th Jilin Petrochemical Ding The benzene plant was stopped for some reason. It is estimated that the monthly production loss during the parking period is about 5,000 tons. Therefore, the production of styrene-butadiene rubber continued to decrease this month compared with the output in June.


Related rubber types: 20th rubber is listed on August 12th. At the beginning of the market, the formation of Hujiao was gradually digested; the supply of raw materials in Yunnan production area improved compared with May and June, and the Thai rubber glue clearance returned to normal, but the downstream terminal tires The company just needs to buy and not change, the supply increase and the weak demand fundamentals exist, superimposed on the cost of natural rubber raw materials underneath, and it is less likely that Tianjiao will continue to fall sharply in the later stage.


There are downward pressures on the global economy. Many countries have adopted policy measures to release liquidity and release liquidity. In the third quarter, China's central bank also lowered expectations for interest rate cuts. In addition, the National Day of 2019 is the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. inevitable. From the macroeconomic level and the political level, there is speculation in the long-term trend of styrene-butadiene rubber.


Based on the analysis of the above factors, Longzhong believes that styrene-butadiene rubber is in a dilemma. After August, the styrene-butadiene rubber market may show signs of recovery, but return to the fundamentals of styrene-butadiene rubber. The downstream tire enterprises just need to purchase, and the arbitrage market high inventory is Constraining the two major adverse effects of the styrene-butadiene market, the operation of each arbitrage model is also uncontrollable and unpredictable. Obviously, the favorable factors currently occupy the upper hand, and the development of the later market can be expected.