Continuously rising during the week, seasonal price changes dominate

- Feb 27, 2019-

The rubber continued to rise for a week, and the rising space narrowed after three consecutive years. In the face of seasonal price changes, the rubber has really not appeared "cold spring", but "fire" for a while.


This week's fundamental changes have occurred in the upper and lower reaches, and the operating rate has continued to rise after the holiday, and the rubber producing countries have gradually entered the cut-off period. There was not much news in the news during the week, but this seasonal change actually brought a big boost to the price of rubber. On Thursday, the rubber saw a rare three consecutive days in the week. The spot price has also steadily increased with the price of the futures. However, although it is not possible to say that there is no market at present, the spot volume is not too good.


The news on Friday is worthy of attention and is expected to bring new conditions this week. The International Tripartite Rubber Council, consisting of Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, announced that it will implement a rubber export restriction measure called the “Agree to Tonnage Export Program” (AETS), during which the main components of Inmate Natural Rubber Producers will reduce the rubber export quota by 300,000 tons to boost the global price of natural rubber. The organization did not specify the specific implementation time of the restrictions. The relevant parties only indicated that the International Tripartite Rubber Council will discuss the issue within about two weeks. The three countries are currently the world's largest rubber producing countries, and the total output of the three countries has even reached 70% of the global natural rubber production. The bullishness of the news may allow rubber futures to maintain a short-term uptrend in the new week.


The upside pressure on the market is relatively large. It is also necessary to focus on the speed of downstream resumption of work this week and whether the market demand will be stimulated, or whether it will stimulate the downstream replenishment demand, or the momentum to continue to rise in the later period.