First, the trend analysis
According to data from the business community, the market for the butadiene rubber market was weak in June. At the beginning of the month, the price was at 11,350 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the price fell back to 10,900 yuan/ton, and the overall month-end fell by 3.96% from the beginning of the month.
Second, the market analysis
Ex-factory price of petrochemical: In June, the ex-factory price of domestic petrochemical petrochemicals was reduced by 700 yuan/ton. According to the business community, as of June 30, the ex-factory price of Daqing Petrochemical butadiene rubber was 10,800 yuan/ton.
In terms of equipment, according to the business community, Daqing Petrochemical's two sets of 160,000 tons/year high-shun-butadiene rubber are currently operating normally with a load of 90%. Qilu Petrochemical's 70,000 tons/year high-shun-butadiene rubber plant is currently running at full capacity; Yanshan Petrochemical's 120,000 The ton/year butadiene rubber plant is in normal operation, with a load of 80% and a stock of about 1,100 tons.
On the demand side, the output of the main downstream tires of synthetic rubber fell year-on-year, which to some extent formed a negative for the price of butadiene rubber. According to statistics, the output of domestic rubber tires in May 2019 was 72.43 million, down 2.33% from the previous month and up 0.2% from the same period of last year. The output of domestic rubber tires from January to May was 33.737 million, down 2.4% year-on-year.
Raw materials: The price of raw materials has fallen short of the price of butadiene rubber. The price of butadiene in raw materials fell in June, at 8551 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 8401 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with an overall decline of 1.75%. The substantial procurement needs of the downstream terminal factories have not changed, and the formation of butadiene rubber is bearish.
Imports: In May 2019, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber were 507,000 tons, a decrease of 8.98% from the previous month; and from January to May, it was 263.5 tons. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 3.5%.
Third, the outlook of the market outlook
Xu Xiaokun, a business analyst, believes that on the one hand, the price of butadiene in raw materials is weak, and it is difficult to form a support for the price of butadiene rubber. On the other hand, the market demand for downstream tires has not improved significantly, and the overall unfavorable butadiene rubber is expected to be in the short term. Will remain weak.