First, the price trend
In May 2019, the butadiene market rebounded higher. The business community monitoring showed that the price of butadiene was 7,834 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the butadiene price was 8,551 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 9.15%. Prices fell by 28.45% compared to the same period last year.
Second, the analysis of influencing factors
Products: This month, due to the increased load of Jihua and Fushun styrene-butadiene rubber equipment, Fushun Petrochemical's butadiene supply has been greatly reduced, coupled with the suspension of the Sherpa and Shandong Huayu installations, the delay of shipment of Inner Mongolia Jiutai, the release of the northern market supply Failure to anticipate is the main factor boosting the market. During the month, a small number of northeast premium goods were substantially increased in price, and the middlemen’s offer rose. As the price went up, the enthusiasm of merchants in the middle and late of this month increased, and the supply of quality products of Jiutai and Shenhua was relatively abundant, and the restart of the Seri and Huayu devices suppressed the market's upward movement to some extent. However, under the support of a small number of high-quality products and high-priced orders, the domestic market was mainly after the increase.
Operating rate: In May 2019, the overall operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry increased slightly to around 70.1%. During the month, Shanghai Petrochemical (5.200, 0.05, 0.97%), Spiron Petrochemical, and Shandong Huayu Equipment were restarted. At the same time, Inner Mongolia Jiutai added 70,000 tons/year of butadiene plant to low-load operation, all of which boosted the start-up situation. In June, the Lanhua plant is scheduled to restart. Nanjing Chengzhi has a 100,000-ton/year installation with a test run. Although Liaoyang Petrochemical has a parking maintenance plan, it is expected to start or will continue to rise.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of business companies, there were 21 kinds of commodities in the chemical sector rising in the price of commodity prices in May 2019, of which 9 products were increased by more than 5%, accounting for 12.2% of the monitored products in the sector. The top three commodities were epichlorohydrin (11.73%), nitric acid (9.51%), butadiene (9.15%). There were 48 kinds of commodities with a decrease in the chain, and 23 kinds of products with a drop of more than 5%, accounting for 31.1% of the monitored products in the sector; the top 3 products were hydrochloric acid (-60.56%) and sulfuric acid (-42.25%). , TDI (-26.21%).
This month's average price increase was -3.9%.
Third, the market outlook
Looking at the market outlook, the positive side: the external market performance is firm, the downstream just needs support. Negative: Inner Mongolia Jiutai plant load has increased expectations, some downstream facilities in the downstream industry shut down, start work decline, the North spot resources are abundant. In the recent June-July, the cargo offer was firm, and a small number of high-grade products in the Northeast were sold at a high price, which brought support to some merchants. However, with the restart of some domestic devices and the continuous release of new manufacturers, the fundamentals of market supply and demand are limited. With the increase in supply in the north, it is expected that there will be some room for decline in the northern market in June. East China recommended to focus on tank inventory pressure and external disk news guidelines, although the temporary offer high, but with the Korean device restart, business and industry butadiene analysts expect that the market's favorable support weakened, and does not rule out weak expectations.