Raw material analysis

- Feb 01, 2019-



Summary of pure benzene: This week, the price of petroleum benzene market has risen slightly, crude oil has continued to rise, and commodities are closely followed. On the macro level, this week's overall continuation of the unilateral upward trend last week, the US crude oil successively crossed the 50 and 52 US dollars / barrel mark, showing a relatively strong upward trend, but the pure benzene market under the dual pressure of high inventory and light demand, The increase is limited. At present, Sinopec's listing price has only been raised once, and the increase is only 100 yuan / ton, far below market expectations, to some extent, suppressing the market to increase enthusiasm. The listed price of Sinopec is lower than the spot market price of East China and the import price is about 200 yuan/ton, which leads to a low degree of heat for importers. As of January 10, the East China pure benzene spot market closed at 4800-4830 yuan / ton from the mention, a slight increase of 300 yuan / ton from last week; Shandong pure benzene market closed at 4,600 yuan / ton out of the warehouse, up 300 times from last week Yuan / ton; imported pure benzene closed CFR China 590-595 US dollars / ton, compared with last week, an increase of 50 US dollars / ton.


Forecast: Zhuo Chuang expects that the price of pure benzene will continue to rise slightly following commodities next week, but the overall range may not be significantly improved. On the macro level, the current oil market has a strong optimistic atmosphere. Many favorable factors in the early stage continue to ferment. In the later period, oil prices still have the power and space to attack. However, domestically, pure benzene plants and port stocks are both high, while downstream demand is gradually slowing down, and internal and external arbitrage windows are closed. Domestic resources still need to be consumed in the short term. On the whole, pure benzene may remain weak in the short term.


Overview of aniline: Although the price of aniline market rose this week, the increase was not as good as the decline. At present, the volume of mainstream production enterprises in East China is limited, and the commercial attributes of East China are weak. Therefore, the current profit is mainly based on Shandong. The theoretical cost is calculated according to (cost = nitric acid * 0.74 + pure benzene * 0.86), and the raw materials are not counted as labor costs, only calculated according to the raw material cost. Due to the current drop in raw material prices, the current cost is about 5,086.36 yuan / ton, an increase of 151.88 yuan / ton from last week's 4,934.48 yuan, not counting labor costs, aniline enterprises can currently be profitable, but the labor costs, aniline enterprise profits are not optimistic. As of Thursday, the price range of aniline is 5140-5590 yuan / ton, the average weekly price is 5285 yuan / ton, and the average price (5372.5 yuan / ton) fell 87.5 yuan / ton, down 1.63%; East China The aniline market price range is 5350-6100 yuan / ton, the average weekly price is 5585 yuan / ton, and the average price (5656.5 yuan / ton) fell 71.5 yuan / ton, down 1.26%.


Forecast: It is expected that the aniline market will continue to move upwards next week. First, the international oil price may continue to rise next week. Although there is a certain risk of a correction, it can still support the center of gravity. Secondly, the price of aniline in the market will rise this week, which will make the downstream replenishment, the inventory of aniline enterprises will decrease, and the market demand will gradually become flat next week. Finally, next week, individual aniline main enterprises have a plan to reduce their losses. The market supply is tight in the short term, and the overall market profit is better than bad. Therefore, it is expected that the aniline market will continue to be better next week.