Supply and demand is the most fundamental factor affecting the price of natural rubber futures. At present, the world's major natural rubber producers are Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Vietnam and India. Due to the large amount of glue used by China and India, the absolute amount of Vietnamese production cannot currently be compared with the above three. Therefore, natural rubber is mainly The exporting countries are Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. The three countries have established the Natural Rubber Regional Sales Alliance (ITRCo) in 2002 to implement a limited production and price guarantee (guarantee price of 80 cents/kg), and Vietnam and Sri Lanka are also actively preparing. Join the organization.
However, since the second half of 2002, the price of natural rubber has shown a strong upward trend. There are indications that some countries in the natural rubber regional sales alliance have not been able to effectively implement natural rubber production reduction measures due to the increase in natural rubber prices. Therefore, the implementation of the natural rubber regional sales alliance for the natural rubber production limit measures is worth observing. If the price falls to near the limit price, the three countries will only have a substantial impact on the supply of natural rubber worldwide, thus affecting the price of natural rubber. The countries and regions with the largest consumption of natural rubber in the world are the United States, China, Western Europe and Japan. Among them, China's own natural rubber production can meet about one-third of domestic consumption, and the rest need to be imported. The United States, Western Europe and Japan Totally dependent on imports.
Obviously, the supply and demand of natural rubber between the three major natural rubber exporting countries and the three major importing countries and regions plays a fundamental and most crucial role in the price of natural rubber. While paying attention to the growth of the world's major natural rubber producing countries, we must also pay attention to the development trend of natural rubber planting and production in Vietnam, India, Sri Lanka and other countries. Especially in Vietnam, since the new century, the Vietnamese government has announced that it will expand the natural rubber planting area and adopt measures such as encouraging exports to increase the sales of natural rubber. It is estimated that by 2005, the natural rubber planting area in Vietnam will increase to 500,000 hectares. It reached 700,000 hectares and the output increased to 500,000 tons and 1 million tons respectively. Vietnam is becoming a new force in the world's natural rubber market.