After the National Day, natural rubber (12215, -40.00, -0.33%) (standard one) was stronger than before the holiday, especially on the night of the 8th, and Hujiao rose by nearly 4% on the 9th. According to the monitoring data of the business community (100ppi.com), on October 9th, the domestic mainstream price of natural rubber (standard one) was 11,155.56 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 3.35%.
Second, factor analysis
Policy stimulus: During the National Day holiday, factors such as the RRR reduction policy and export tax rebate are more favorable. The third RRR cut during the year: On October 7, the central bank decided to reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio of large commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, city commercial banks, non-county rural commercial banks, and foreign banks from October 15, 2018. 1 percentage point, this is the fourth time the central bank has lowered its RRR this year. Some of the funds released by the RRR cut were used to repay the approximately RMB 450 billion medium-term loan facility (MLF) due on October 15. This part of the MLF will not be renewed on the same day. Excluding this part, the RRR reduction can also release incremental funds of about 750 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations. Adjustment of export tax rebate rate: The State Council executive meeting held on October 8 decided that from November 1, 2018, according to the principle of structural adjustment, with reference to international common practice, the current export tax rebate rate of goods is 15% and part of 13%. Raised to 16%; 9% to 10%, some to 13%; 5% to 6%, and partially to 10%. The export tax rebate rate for products with high energy consumption, high pollution, resource products and tasks facing de-capacity remains unchanged. Further simplifying the tax system, the tax rebate rate has been reduced from the original seven to five. The policy favors the export of tires.
Downstream profitability: As of September 30, 2018, rubber inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell 23% to 162,900 tons. Preliminary statistics show that all rubber stocks fell across the board, but the total is still high. The downstream operating rate in September has basically returned to normal. As of September 28, the operating rate of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 74.95%, an increase of 1.87 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 10.04 percentage points year-on-year.
Third, the market outlook
Natural rubber analysts of the business community believe that the initial entry into the "Silver 10", natural rubber by the policy and other positive, short-term upswing, stronger than the previous market performance, short-term upward visibility, but the overall continuous large-scale rise is insufficient, the range is dominated, Still need to pay attention to downstream demand and the impact of good news at home and abroad.