The holiday effect continues to ferment. Natural rubber is still weak.

- Feb 11, 2019-

First, the commodity index


On January 31, the index of natural rubber (standard one) was 32.55, which was 0.07 points lower than yesterday, which was 67.45% lower than the highest point of the cycle (2011-09-01), compared with the lowest point on November 25, 2015. 28.15 points rose by 15.63%. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to date)


Second, the market trend


In the middle and late January of 2019, parts of the rubber-producing areas in Southeast Asia were successively stopped, and they are currently in the off-season of seasonal rubber production. The price of natural rubber is still in the bottom area. The industry's weak situation is urgent. The governments of various countries have continued to support the rubber industry. Many favorable factors have promoted. Natural rubber has experienced several large shocks this month. In the past two weeks, following the first half of the month. After a few big rebounds, Tianjiao gave a strong rebound on the 21st. Although it continued to have insufficient kinetic energy, it turned around and turned around. The short-term recovery also gave the market a little expectation for the short-term opportunity of the new year's natural rubber market. According to the monitoring data of the business community (100ppi.com), at the beginning of January (1st), the average domestic price of natural rubber (standard) Hainan Baodao was 10,650 yuan / ton. As of the end of this week (31st), the average price was 10,962.50 yuan / Tonne, an increase of 2.93%; the highest price appeared at 21,262.50 yuan / ton on the 21st, the lowest point appeared at 10,650 yuan / ton on the 1st, the amplitude of 5.75%. Since the beginning of December 2018, the price has reached 10,260 yuan / ton, and the natural rubber has increased by 9.77%. Global rubber production has entered the off-season, and the short-term fluctuation of rubber prices has increased significantly, but the range is limited, and the holiday effect continues to ferment.


Third, the current comparison


In terms of futures, Hujiao continued to rise on the 3rd and 4th of this month. On the 4th, the 1905 contract rose 3.45% on a single day, setting a single-day maximum increase since September 20, 2018. After repeated shocks, the market was weak due to downstream demand. Fallback; until the 21st, Hujiao 1905 Masukura increase, the intraday increase of more than 2%, but closed slightly down, the day rose by 1.54%, the bears still dominate. In terms of spot, the red-hot trend since the New Year has given the market a certain confidence. Naturally, it has been falling for eight consecutive years. It is still near the cost line and still quite fragile. Every increase and decrease of more than 2% will cause great concern.