The most basic factors affecting the natural rubber market.

- Feb 11, 2019-

For global supply, Thailand now accounts for 36%, Indonesia accounts for 26%, Vietnam 8%, China 6%, India 5%, followed by Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Côte d'Ivoire in Africa and Brazil in South America. Last year's production was estimated at 14 million tons worldwide, and the growth rate of supply was 3.3%. This is the global supply situation, Thailand is 5.01 million tons, in fact, Thailand's output may far exceed the agency's statistics. Because of Thailand's exports, and its domestic estimate of 700,000 tons of consumption, Thailand's production may reach 5.3 to 5.5 million tons. In fact, the data is only a reference, but everyone can have a rough, which is the main area of concern.


From the perspective of global demand, China is the largest demand side, and China's consumption of natural rubber accounts for 40% of global consumption. Last year, the world consumed 13.7 million tons. This is the agency's estimated data. China's consumption is basically equal to the sum of the United States, Europe, Japan, India and Thailand. In fact, the Chinese people themselves can only consume a quarter of their own consumption, because we have a lot of rubber products, tires, hose tape, and a large number of exports. Therefore, from the perspective of per capita consumption, the per capita consumption of natural rubber in China is actually not high, far behind the Western countries. This is also an important reason why many institutions are optimistic about rubber for a long time.


They believe that if China grows with the economy, countries like China and India, their per capita consumption can go up. For the future consumption of natural rubber, it is more imaginative and there is room for growth. For example, the average Chinese person uses 6.5 rubber gloves per person per year, and the average level of developed countries in Europe and America is more than 100. Therefore, the gap is very large. If we can have so many latex products, the global consumption of natural rubber will increase by 10 to 150,000 tons.


This is the case of consumption in various countries. In the consumer sector, the most important aspect is the tire field. Natural rubber is mainly used in the manufacture of tires. The proportion of natural rubber used in tire manufacturing is 70%, and various other products are various. China accounts for half of the natural rubber consumption in the entire tire sector.


With this understanding, we need to analyze some of the most fundamental factors affecting the natural rubber market. First of all, it must be macroscopic. On the macro level, as we are not specifically studying macroeconomics, we may not be convinced. Let me briefly talk about some of my own views. I think the macro impact on commodities is mainly due to the macroscopic decision of the big trend pattern, the macro determines the explosiveness of demand, and the macroscopic impact on the financial level is to determine the risk appetite of funds. From a long-term perspective, the price of industrial products is basically in line with the trend of this macro-first index, if the cycle is very consistent. China's purchasing managers index, we see that the overall economic downturn is still relatively obvious. At this point, we should not go too far to ignore, do not see some of the counter-cyclical adjustment of this signal, and completely forget the inertia of this decline.


Macro rethinking, macro is not only economic, financial, but also some political aspects. The size of the second macroscopic contradiction determines the level of volatility. If the macroscopic contradictions are large, the volatility will be very large. If the macro itself is in the downward cycle and there is a countercyclical adjustment, it may be a relatively small interval. It is possible that the fluctuations of the entire industrial product in 2019 are not very large, neither a big bull market nor a big collapse. Then each variety is affected by macroscopic effects, and rubber is definitely a species that is greatly affected by macroscopic effects. Because its main consumer area is tires, tires are related to the new car consumption of the entire car market. The second one is also very big with our economic activities, infrastructure, real estate, and logistics. Relationship, it is a strong cycle of varieties, including other rubber products such as hose tape, their downstream is also in some areas of mines, coal, some bulk raw materials, so its strong periodicity is very strong. The fourth is to macroscopically consider the price has been reflected. If 20,000 hours, with 10,000, some macro changes, the impact on the market is completely different.


The global macro, then the environmental policy, these will have a repressive impact on the economy. They have a skeptical attitude towards China and are expecting downward growth for this year's growth rate.


Europe is actually a bit worse than the situation in the United States.