Global natural rubber output is still in the growth cycle, and the growth rate of terminal rubber demand in the Chinese market continues to decline. The supply and demand relationship in the natural rubber market remains oversupplied.
More than half of 2018 has passed, with the natural rubber market first experiencing a one-off fall in the first half of the year and then a long period of low volatility.Since late June, the shanghai-gum 1901 contract has been running for more than three months in a narrow range of 11,545 yuan/ton to 12875 yuan/ton.In my opinion, the chances of the shanghai-gum 1901 contract going out of the rally over the next two months are already limited, and the possibility of ending the contract in the current fluctuation range is high.
First, from the supply side.By September, China had imported 1.85 million tons of natural rubber, compared with 2.02 million tons in the same period last year.By September, China had imported 3.27 million tons of synthetic rubber, compared with 3.09 million tons in the same period last year, an increase of about 180,000 tons.In terms of total rubber imports, the import supply in the first three quarters of 2018 was slightly higher than that in 2017.From the perspective of explicit inventory, as of October 16, the warehouse quantity of futures in Shanghai futures exchange was 57,400 tons, 373,200 tons in the same period of last year, the rubber inventory of Qingdao bonded warehouse was 112,000 tons, and 198,900 tons in the same period of last year.According to the stock of rubber in the futures warehouse and bonded warehouse of Shanghai futures exchange, the current level of dominant inventory is still about 57,000 tons higher than last year.In particular, the high price of rubber warehouse receipt in Shanghai futures exchange has a more obvious impact on the futures price, which makes the price of shanghai-gum 1901 lower than the current performance of shanghai-gum 1801 contract.While the apparent inventory growth over the same period is slightly higher than the import growth over the same period, which indicates that the domestic natural rubber market is still in a state of surplus and slight aggravation.
Second, look at downstream demand.By the end of September, China had produced and sold 20.4913 million vehicles and 20.4906 million vehicles, up 0.9 percent and 1.5 percent year-on-year, and the growth rate was down 1.9 percentage points and 2 percentage points respectively from January to August.The year-on-year growth rate of car production is down by about 4 percentage points.By September, China had achieved a cumulative production of 647 million tires, up 1.4 percent year-on-year, down nearly 4.4 percentage points.When the total amount of rubber supply remains relatively stable, the downstream demand slowdown is undoubtedly another important reason for the deterioration of the supply-demand relationship.
In addition, the output of natural rubber in the main producing country is still increasing.According to the latest report data, from January to August 2018, the natural rubber output of Thailand, the main producing country, reached 2.783 million tons, with an increase of about 140,000 tons, and that of Indonesia, the main producing country, reached about 2.598 million tons, with an increase of about 390,000 tons.However, the output of natural rubber in Vietnam and India decreased in the first three quarters of 2018, among which Vietnam reduced output by about 130,000 tons and India reduced output by about 40,000 tons. However, it is still difficult to change the fact that the global natural rubber production has maintained a relatively large increase.Therefore, with no significant reduction in domestic production of the two major natural rubber main producers in Thailand and Indonesia, the global natural rubber oversupply will remain for a long time.