As a big manufacturer of rubber auxiliary, Shenyang Sunnyjoint Chemicals Co., Ltd. Learned that rubber additives, with the rapid development of China's automobile and tire industry, have driven the rapid expansion of domestic rubber additive production capacity.
At present, China's rubber additive production capacity has accounted for about 75% of global production capacity, while rubber additives have become the largest users of commercial aniline. With the development of China's tire and automobile industry into a slow growth platform after rapid expansion, coupled with the normalization of domestic environmental supervision and the smog in winter, there is no improvement trend.
Therefore, the growth of domestic rubber additives is very slow, and may even appear. Negative growth, according to statistics from the Rubber Association Auxiliary Branch, the production of rubber antioxidants and accelerators in the first half of 2017 was -4.4% and -0.5%, respectively. The output of rubber additives will maintain a slight increase in the current level in the next few years.
It is estimated that the demand for aniline for rubber additives will reach 370,000 tons in 2020. In the field of dyes, medicines, pesticides and intermediates, the domestic market demand is relatively stable. Because aniline is mostly used in this field, such as azo dyes, with the increasingly strict domestic environmental protection requirements, the industrial structure adjustment of Jiangsu and Zhejiang chemical developed areas The transformation will accelerate and some downstream facilities will be permanently closed.
Therefore, the demand for aniline in this field will remain at the current level, and will show zero growth or even negative growth in the next few years. It is estimated that about 1600,000 tons of aniline will be consumed in 2020. Cyclohexylamine and diphenylamine, cyclohexylamine are mainly used in the production of sodium cyclamate and accelerator CBS. The market demand for both downstream products is slowly increasing. Diphenylamine is mainly used in the production of rubber additives, oil additives, medicines and pesticides. The market demand growth is also very slow, but the domestic chemical market is recovering significantly.
The export situation of cyclohexylamine and diphenylamine and downstream products is getting better. It is estimated that the demand for aniline will reach 110,000 tons by 2020. Other areas include oil additives. Polyaniline, special solvents, special fibers, etc., the growth rate of consumption of aniline in these fields will not be too large. It is estimated that the consumption of aniline in this field will be about 110,000 tons in 2020. On the export side, with the large use of light hydrocarbons such as shale gas abroad, the production of aromatics in North America has gradually declined. As an important downstream product of aromatics, aniline has a promising prospect of export of aniline, but subject to exchange rate fluctuations, future exports will also fluctuate. It is estimated that domestic aniline exports will remain fluctuating around 150,000 tons in 2020.
Based on the above, it is estimated that the domestic aniline market demand (plus export volume) will reach 1 million tons in 2020, while the current domestic aniline production capacity reaches 1.74 million tons, taking into account the new aniline production and some small-scale production areas of Fuqiang new materials. If the equipment is closed and relocated in accordance with the planning requirements, the domestic aniline operation rate may reach 60%-70% by 2020, which is significantly higher than the current operating rate. Overcapacity still exists, but the excess will be eased.