First, the price trend
In 2018, the price of nitrile rubber rose first and then fell. The price at the beginning of the year was 19,500 yuan / ton. After that, the price continued to rise to 22,966 yuan / ton on October 9, and then fell to 20,733 yuan / ton at the end of the year, up 6.32 at the end of the year. %.
Specifically, it is divided into three stages: the first stage, the start-up rate of the manufacturers before and after the Lunar New Year's Day is greatly reduced, the market supply is tight, and the price of nitrile rubber is pushed up to the end of March and early April, with the operating rate of the manufacturers after the Spring Festival. Looking back, the market supply is loose, and the overall price trend is slowing down.
The second stage, starting in July, was affected by the anti-dumping time of imported nitrile rubber by the Ministry of Commerce. On the one hand, the operating rate of nitrile rubber manufacturers in July and August decreased again, pushing the price of nitrile rubber to rise to mid-October.
In the third stage, in the fourth quarter of 2018, the downstream market demand for nitrile rubber was weak. On the one hand, the price of butadiene in raw materials fell sharply in the fourth quarter, which suppressed the price of nitrile rubber. The price of nitrile rubber fell all the way to the end of the year.
Second, the market trend analysis
Product: In 2018, the operating rate of domestic nitrile rubber fluctuated up and down. Before and after the Lunar New Year and the middle of July and August, the operating rate was relatively low. Under the pressure of supply, the price of nitrile rubber was increased at the beginning of the year.
Policy: On July 16, 2018, anti-dumping of nitrile rubber was first laid off. On November 8, 2018, anti-dumping of nitrile rubber was finally settled. Since November 9, 2018, imports from South Korea and Japan have been imported. Nitrile rubber is subject to anti-dumping duties.
In terms of raw materials: The price of butadiene in raw materials fluctuated mainly in 2018. It rose in the first three quarters and fell sharply in the fourth quarter. The price change of butadiene in raw materials has, to a certain extent, driven the fluctuation of the price of nitrile rubber from the cost side.
Third, the outlook outlook
In 2019, the nitrile rubber was lubricated by the bullish factors. On the one hand, the downward pressure on the domestic economy in 2019 is still there.