Based on the forecast of the reduction of domestic automobile production, rubber consumption and other factors, Japan carbon black association recently released the forecast of carbon black demand in 2019 is 781,700 tons, down 0.1% (year on year, the same below), which is the fifth consecutive year of decline in Japan's carbon black demand after falling below 800,000 tons in 2015.
Due to the following factors, Japan made the forecast of the year-on-year decline in the demand for black carbon:
One is the Japanese automobile tire association based on this year's flat auto production forecast, is expected to reduce domestic demand for automotive tires this year 1%.
Second, Japan rubber industry association is expected this year in new rubber consumption, tire rubber demand decreased by 0.6%, non-tire rubber demand increased by 1.4%, the overall decrease of 0.2%.
It is said that this forecast also takes into account the import and export factors, as well as sino-us trade frictions, the direction of the brexit negotiations and other downside risks to the world economy.
In the total demand for carbon black, the quantities of each statistical caliber are:
1. Carbon black for rubber is expected to be 705,700 tons, down 0.2%.
2. Domestic market demand was 723,700 tons, down 0.1%.The domestic demand for rubber carbon black was 686,700 tons, down 0.2 percent.Among them, the domestic demand of carbon black for tires was 529,600 tons, down by 0.6%.Domestic demand for non-tire carbon black was 157,100 tons, up 1.4%.
3. Exports of 58,000 tons, up 0.3 percent.Among them, 19,000 tons of rubber black carbon was used, down 0.1 percent, while it increased 4.5 percent year-on-year in 2018.The main reason is that China is worried about slowing economic growth, resulting in reduced market demand.
4. It is expected to import 160,000 tons, down by 0.6%.Of these, 147,000 tons were used for rubber, down 0.7 percent.The proportion of black carbon imports in Japan's domestic market demand decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 21.3% in 2018, mainly due to the reduction in the weight of Chinese imports.
According to statistics of import channels, China is still Japan's largest importer, followed by Thailand, South Korea and India, which together account for 90% of Japan's total imports.